We are without a doubt living in a time of volatility and business planning departments everywhere are frantically busy trying to create scenarios and the impacts that they have on cashflows.

Sadly, small businesses do not have that luxury (or curse). Many companies do suffer from paralysis through analysis. The other danger is of course that you read to widely and therefore get confused by what each different economist says.

It has widely been evidenced that past performance is actually very poorly correlated with future performance in numerous fields. So as a small business you have the ability to sometimes just plough your own field. But to add to your confusion, what do I think is going to happen.

The British and US economy is heavily dependent on consumption (it makes up some 70% of the GDP). Consumer demand depends heavily on disposable income. In turn on an aggregate basis, this depends on

1. Employment levels. Unemployment seems to have stabilised around the current level of around 2.3m and in the US seems to have peaked

2. Taxation. Disposable income is obviously dependent on this. Tax levels will have to rise significantly. There is no other option.

Much is made of public spending cuts. However, most public spending is related to the state of the economy and is mandatory, with an increasingly elderly population, it becomes difficult to contain let alone cut spending on health, pensions and other welfare. So no matter what governments say, cutting public spending remains a very hard thing to do.

I also expect the next government to be a weak government (in terms of the majority it will enjoy), and in that situation it is easier to raise taxes than cut spending. (Ironically, the lobbying power of a department is stronger than all taxpayers!)

Therefore taxes will be raised with VAT going up to 20% (if the conservatives win) and Income tax and Capital Gains tax going up if Labour hold on to power.

3. Disposable income is also heavily related to the level of interest rates (this is not true so much for North America where most mortgages are fixed for a period of 15 years plus). In the UK most mortgage holders are on variable mortgages.

So if you have a £100,000 mortgage a 1% cut in interest saves you £1,000 a year. Interest rates have come down by about 3% from their recent peak (if you have a £300,000 mortgage which is common in London, this is a massive saving of £9,000 per annum)

Interest rates in turn are dependent now to a large extent on the level of expected inflation. Inflation is set to soar. This is for a variety of reasons including the silent rise in the price of oil (it is back to $80 a barrel). And a weak pound will lead to inflation as it means the cost of imports becomes more expensive. Finally, if VAT does go up to 20% that will add about a full percentage point to inflation.

For these reasons and because of the huge government borrowing levels, interest rates will have to rise.

The impact of rising interest rates and taxation will dampen consumption. Our best chance of avoiding a ‘W’ shaped recession is to hope for a growth in exports. The chances of this do look good actually. Our largest markets, the US and Europe, are recovering and a weak pound makes our exports more competitive. I am doing my best through increasing my sales in Canada!

So , what does this all mean?

In my opinion, consumer demand is going to soften and possibly lead to another downturn. So if you are starting a business you will need to be aware of this scenario. So look for something that allows businesses and consumers to cut costs or to have a cheap treat. Or, really look to overseas markets. You would be surprised to learn how much help is available to UK based companies to help them export.

Or the best advice may be to simply ignore yet another prediction!

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I was one of those lucky students who loved my chosen subject at University; Economics. (Whilst on this subject my advice to anyone going to University is to always choose a subject you love rather than one which you think will enhance your career prospects – unless the subject is Media Studies – we all enjoy watching TV. I am not worried about Media students writing in to complain as they only do texting!)

One of the subjects which I really enjoyed covering was Marxist Economics. If you have not studied Marxism, I would really recommend it. I disagree with the conclusions, but the analysis tools are seriously first rate. One of the main thoughts in Marxism was about the accumulation of wealth. To generate wealth, labour has to be exploited.

This argument which is now about 150 years old is still compellingly relevant. Other ways of explaining this have come to pass and are more widely accepted because they seem less ‘offensive’ or stark. However, the truth remains exactly that.

Whatever field you are in, your pay or level of remuneration will ultimately depend on two things. The value you can add to your employer and your bargaining power. If an organisation decides to pay someone £1m a year, it will because they believe that the employee will add considerably more value than that and their bargaining power will get them to that level of pay.

The development of the trade union movement can be explained as thus. The bargaining power of individuals was a lot less than that of a group and they were engaged in ensuring that more of the value ‘created’ would go to their members rather than to the employer.

The interesting thing to note from Marxist Economics was that they believe that it was in the interests of capitalism to maintain high levels of unemployment. The rationale for this being that the bargaining power of individuals is not that strong when there is mass unemployment. Statistically this does hold true.

What is the relevance of this to the Entrepreneur?

Firstly, many entrepreneurs fall into the trap of paying too much money for ‘talent’. They feel that because of the insecurity of working for a start up, they have to offer a higher salary. Secondly, they also think that as a small business they are in a weaker bargaining position.

A further point is that salaries should only be offered at a level which means that the employee is adding value to at least three times the level of their salary. In sales, it is common to expect a sales person to generate sales at a level which is at least ten times their salary.

If a sales person generates £1m of sales, that would probably equate to around £300,000 of gross profit – and therefore a salary of £100,000 would still hold this equation.

However, many start ups feel compelled to offer very attractive sales packages. And here another bit of economics comes in handy. You have to remember your marginal cost. Revenue is not the same as profit. There are many deals I know of where the better a sales person does, the greater a loss the company will suffer.

I was working for a start up in 2000. I was a good sales person and was one of the companies top earners. However, the company fired me (a story for another time) and the real reason was that they wanted to replace the first set of sales people with another set who were on very different packages.

Anyway – back to the main point of the blog. Always remember that wealth creation is based on being able to sell at a greater price than you pay – and that is also true of labour.

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In my last blog (which was a bit depressing I know) I highlighted that the due diligence process is a two way thing. Just as an angel will carry out due diligence on you – you will need to carry out diligence on them.

Here are some of the questions you should ask them with an explanation of things to look out for;

1. Where are you meeting them? I have to say that I have been very disappointed by so called Angel events in the UK. In Canada at the First Angel Network, they really probe and make sure you can only come to an event if you have both the means and the appetite to invest. Lots of people want to join the network to sell their own services. FAN is great at excluding them. If you are lucky enough to pitch at a FAN event you WILL raise serious money. I went to a London event last week. Out of the 120 people at the event, I suspect only 12 to 15 people were investors.

2. When did they last invest in something? (if it was more than 12 months ago – forget it) you have to be careful that you are not the ones they are losing their virginity to. I took ages over doing my first angel investment. And when I did do it, I put in half the money I first wanted put in. (That is very common as well)

3. What have they invested in? (if they give you sectors or generic descriptions – probe more. Most of the investors I know love telling people what they have invested in. I, for one get a real buzz telling people about the businesses I have invested in. Funnily enough, one of the Canadian Angels I was working with got ‘caught out’ through this probing)

4. Do they invest or do they ‘earn’ sweat equity? There is nothing wrong with sweat equity (I can do a blog on this if required) but be clear that this is what you after. I prefer combination deals whereby someone puts in hard cash as well as the opportunity to earn more. Human nature being what it is we have a greater motivation to not lose something rather than win something. Therefore I will be twice as motivated not to lose £25,000 than I will be to make £25,000. (Strange but true)

5. Can they give you references? If it looks like you will be doing due diligence together and spending time – find out what they are like as an investor. Ask the companies they have provided details for.

6. How much do they normally invest? I was raising money for a business once in the region of just under £1m. One potential investor I met asked some great questions and wanted to meet the entire management team (not unreasonable). I then learned that he wanted to invest £10,000. Nothing wrong with that amount – but if every investor putting in that level wanted a meeting lasting two hours that is 600 hours of management time (assuming one out of every three investors you meet ends up investing). That is 15 weeks of management doing nothing but raising money!

7. Do they invest with ‘strings attached’? There are loads of tricks whereby investors can get more from their investment. Again nothing wrong with this – but you have to be clear from the outset. For example, do they insist on being a Director? Again, not a problem, but what is the cost. I have written a blog about one ‘investor’ I knew who had done a great PR job on himself, convinced many companies that he would be a great NED and invested £10,000 in many companies, but got a payment of £24,000 from each company (with 50% needed upfront) Fantastic business model – but I have to say it lacks erm Honesty! (he also did a very poor job) Again be careful of investors looking for a job – unless you need their skills.

I hope this is useful. It was good to write this blog as it is very much about going back to basics and the reason why I started out writing this blog. Sadly, the world of finance always attracts more than its fair share of talentless morons..

Make sure you find angels to back you who get the wealth creation and risk ‘thing’.

Best of luck.

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Many of you will not know who Brian Clough is. He was one of the best football managers ever and achieved something which I sadly think will not be achieved again – (unless someone like Wenger can do it with Arsenal). That is to achieve greatness without spending a King’s ransom. One of his quotes was that he would only tell someone they were great – if they were. It was cruel in his opinion to tell someone that they could excel as a player when they did not have it in them to be great.

It comes down to honesty and clarity. People like to know where they stand and what is expected of them. It is amazing that we accept this as a rule when it comes to the way we manage and communicate with employees, but not when it comes to business relationships.

Last week a good friend of mine told me of a story that is all too familiar to me.

They were running a great business with real promise and I for one fully expected the business to do very well. They got into negotiations with a Business Angel and the Angel was very enthusiastic about investing. He spent a lot of time with the business and even went on a lot of customer visits. He made it clear before Christmas that he wanted to invest in the business. The entrepreneur was also very clear that failure to get investment by January would have a serious impact on the business. The angel reassured the business that investment would be forthcoming.

You know how the story will go. Earlier this week the investor pulled the rug on the investment. The business is now in a serious position and will probably have to either close down or go into extended hibernation.

There is a school of thought that believes that all is fair in love and war and business. I have never believed this. The ‘strategy’ (if it can be called this) is to say yes to a deal and then wait till the last minute to change your mind. The idea is that at that time, the business will be so desperate that they will do a much better deal (for the funder).

I am old fashioned and I still believe that your word is your bond. Do not say yes unless that is your intention. I have said yes and then said no. But this is because of something I have learned through the due diligence process or basically being told a lie. Simply changing your mind is not an option.

So my advice to anyone looking for finance is to always do your due diligence on the investor. I will write the next blog about questions you should ask potential investors.

But till then remember “trust is good, but contracts are better”. Very sad but true.

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As I mentioned in a recent blog, I ran a three day course in Halifax recently from St Mary’s University called From Mind to Market. Given the last blog was all about looking for an idea – it seems to be appropriate to talk about what to do next.

Thank you for the emails requesting more information about the course, given the interest, I thought it made sense for me to write a blog. I would appreciate your feedback on this blog as I am seriously thinking about writing a book called “From Mind to market” – if your feedback is positive, I will start writing it, if it is not so good, perhaps the book can wait! Furthermore, I am running the course again at the end of March and am thinking of filming it. If you are interested, please do let me know if you would like a DVD or web access to the course.

The course was split into five courses over three days;

1. Is the Market Ready?
2. Writing and Financing a Business Plan
3. Sales
4. Planning for High Growth
5. Planning for the very long term

I trust the sequence of the courses makes sense. The first stage is to ensure your idea is validated. There are many ways of doing this and electronic media makes it possible to dry run an idea at a very cheap cost. Twitter/ Facebook and especially Linked-In, make it very easy for you to test out the appetite of your idea at a fraction of the cost associated with proving old ideas. I am very sceptical about market research – be careful that the results do not tell you what you effectively were paying someone to come back and tell you. We have all seen episodes of Dragons Den where we all know the idea is stupid. However, someone else has convinced, the would be entrepreneur that they have a good idea!

Once you have established that there is a market for your product/ solution, you will probably need some sort of financing. There are lots of sources to consider. Depending on the nature of your business, different sources may be more or less attractive. Remember that as a general rule, debt is cheaper than equity. Debt though is hard to get and especially in the current business climate. Make sure you clearly understand what the different providers of finance are looking for.

Sales is the lifeline of any business and once you have raised the money the best thing you can do is make sure you get selling and get selling quickly. If everything is not quite ready, let the customers be the ones to tell you what further hoops you have to jump through to get their business; let them co-author your final offering. Too many times I see companies develop solutions which are perfect for them but not the customer! You don’t get a second chance to make a first impression – so really put a lot of work into your sales process and execution.

High Growth sounds great, but it brings with it a whole heap of issues that you need to plan for. Critical to this is your ability to manage cashflow. As a high growth coach and as a manager of a turnaround fund, I see many businesses run into predictable problems – that could easily be avoided by managing cash.

Finally, once you are at a stage where you are confident that you have a good business in shape, you need to ensure that the business is equipped to deal with long term issues. For example, global warming means that weather extremes are more likely to occur with greater frequency. Does your business have a plan to cope with at this? (I was recently surprised to learn that some cheques I had paid into a HSBC branch were delayed by a week for clearing because the snow had meant that the cheques were not picked up by the delivery van on time! I am amazed to see even now how many retail businesses in the UK, don’t have plans to clear the entrance to their store when there is snow!

I hope this snapshot – and it is just that is useful. The course went for a full three days – so of course is much, much more. You can help me conduct my own cheap market research and let me know if yes you are interested in either

1. Attending such a course if it was run near you
2. Buying access to a video of the course
3. Buying a book

It is good to practice what you preach!

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I was watching some old TV footage of ‘alternative’ comedy in the late 1980s. The comedy was seen as alternative at the time (although it is mainstream now). The comedy was based on simple observation and finding the stuff that is funny and unusual about our everday routines. It was groundbreaking as it wasn’t telling jokes or finding a victim – the victim in this humour was us – we were being encouraged to laugh at ourselves rather than at a minority.

I know some very funny people and their ability is not based upon their ability to tell jokes but rather to just observe and make witty comments in any given situation. I could not help but think that the Entrepreneur has a similar ability.

They look at everyday situations and see opportunity. They see that things could be done better and that there is value to be provided in making things better. All of us are ideapreneurs – but some of us have an additional ability to take things beyond an observation and do something about what we observe.

Again, like comedians, it is about recognising the skills you have. Many comedians have a team of script writers providing the jokes and they practice the ability to deliver a performance. The script writers create the content – but perhaps lack the ability to perform (or more importantly, perhaps don’t want to) on a stage.

I always thought that Angus Deaton (former presenter of Have I got news for you) was hilarious and then I saw him in other programs and realised he was fantastic at reading scripts (a skill not to dismissed). In a similar vein, I was disappointed to learn that Elvis did not write any of his ‘songs’. Neither did most of the Motown legends. Does this diminish the power of some of their music? (It was actually The Beatles that were one of the first music acts to write and perform their own material). Scarily, you could argue therefore that Simon Cowell is taking music back to where it was pre-Beatles!

Back to the main point, we need to recognise that not everyone is a John Lennon and that the best businesses are all about a team effort and approach. I tend to have a good business idea at least once a week, but there is very little if any value in that. An idea is not a business. As one entrepreneur said to me – “until you have a customer, all you are is an idea”. But making the idea ‘happen’ is for another blog and is a course in its own right. (Cheeky plug here – I do run a three day course called “From Mind to Market” – if you are interested, please contact me for more information).

If you are looking for ideas – just be an observational comedian for a week or two. You will be surprised at the wealth of opportunities that are just waiting for you to make them happen.

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With the New Year now in full frozen swing, many people are looking at starting a new business. It is not rare for people to ask me if I could help them with a business idea they are working on or developing. The following paragraph is based on something that really happened three years ago.

I was asked by a neighbour to help him with his business idea (I have since learnt to never tell neighbours what I do for a living!). So we go out for a coffee and I ask him about his business. His reply is “it is something to do with design”. I obviously needed something more than this – but he refused to tell me as he was worried I would steal his idea. I could understand his fear – but then he should not have asked me for help. As it happens, it turned out to be a very quick coffee.

Last week, I was having a conversation with someone about their business and they were worried (rightly) that once they launch their business, they will generate competition and other companies will try and do what they are doing.

Sometimes, people can get carried away with this fear of competition and the need to keep things secret. You need to look at your business and recognize that most of your business value is not in the formulas, IT system or even brand design. Most of the value will be in the relationships and partnerships you form within your business ‘eco-system’. This part of a business becomes very difficult if not impossible to replace.

Many people argue that because of the internet, the value of these relationships diminishes. I would disagree. Most e-commerce sites still rely on partnership arrangements and it becomes very difficult for new entrants to replicate this.

In this specific example, we were able to realize that by tying up contracts and agreements with just twelve very specific companies, this new company would have most of the market tied up and make it very difficult for a new entrant.

So in this new decade and indeed in this new supposedly depersonalized world, I believe it is firms who employ people with the best interpersonal skills and emotional intelligence that will build great businesses that will be able to withstand the competition from new entrants. Networking and relationship building will take on a greater importance.

So to conclude, when you are thinking about protecting your business – focus on the areas that are truly difficult to copy such as great service.

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Most people will be happy to see the back of 2009. It was not a good year to be a banker or be in the ‘money’ space at all. A lot of Fund managers have had a very rough time although equities have had a good run in the last 12 months. As for the angel scene, it has been active mainly because other sources for funding have dried up.

This year I invested in two businesses – www.wooshii.com and www.adventus.com

I am confident though that next year I will be making more angel investments. However, one of the key lessons for me from the year was that as an angel investor you are better off making an investment through an active network. I have to be honest and say that I have found UK angel groups very disappointing (post investment). They are like estate agents – once the deal has been done, they seem to show very little interest in how the company is doing or looking after the interests of shareholders they introduced to the deal.

As such, I have yet to join an angel group in the UK; don’t get me wrong, they do excel at introducing you to companies and showing you a great range of companies in a short space of time. I have come across a different model in Halifax – which I love and as a result I have joined my first angel network (which is called the First Angel Network!). They only present four companies a year – and all of their companies get funded (if you are a company presenting through a network – before you part with any money ask how many companies get fully funded through their network)

My investment in Adventus was made through this network – mostly because I was highly impressed with their post deal diligence and care.

Things do appear to be getting better although I have a funny feeling that this is all the calm before the storm. Within the next six months there will be an election in the UK and it looks likely that there will be a change of government (although I think there will be coalition or much weaker Labour government rather than what everyone thinks will be a strong Conservative government) The next four or five years in the UK are going to be horrible – whichever government is in power. VAT is currently 15% but I believe if the conservatives win it will be 20% by the end of 2010.

Capital Gains Tax is currently 18%, but if Labour win, I am sure they will be raised significantly. Either way, taxes will have to be raised significantly and spending will be curtailed. Our finances are simply awful and after the election urgent action will be needed to address them.

2009 has actually been a very good year for me although it has been a lot busier than expected. I am looking forward to 2010 but my advice is to approach the next year with caution and a back up plan. We are set for some serious changes.

And I hope to stick to one of my resolutions; to write at least one blog a week

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Like finding a suitable name for a new band that you are going to launch, much time is wasted in defining luck and the importance it plays in business success. I like the definition that luck is where opportunity meets preparation.

A successful friend of mine told me that he believes that most of us (but not all) get the same amount of luck in life. It is just that some people are able to take advantage of it and some people pass up on the opportunity.

When I purchased my very first property to rent out, I remember someone close to me at the time telling me not to do it because “if it was that easy, everyone would be doing it”. It is true that you should avoid acting with the herd, but equally, it is not a good reason to not do something.

If you pardon this ego-trip, I would like to share the history of my Canada experience with you and highlight the role that ‘accident’ has played in my latest venture which I am very excited about.

My good friend and business partner, Fergus got off a plane from Portugal and told me that he thought I should write a blog. This was over a year ago – and with a lot of help from him, I started writing a blog.

This blog got ‘picked’ up by some Canadians working at the National Angel Capital Organisation and a guy called Bryan Watson – started commenting on my blog and being very encouraging about the whole thing. Before his comments, the whole thing felt very lonely! I was as a result of this invited to speak at their Annual Conference in Halifax Nova Scotia, 11 months ago.

Whilst there, I met some very interesting people including someone who worked for a great University based there called St. Mary’s University. When I next visited Halifax in February this year, I spoke at the University to some business students. I also met a person there who invited me to have lunch with her and some of her business partners.

At that lunch on the last day of my trip some interesting discussions emerged and it seemed possible that there could be the makings of an interesting business venture between us.

Earlier this year, I was also at a European Angel Conference in Madrid and I met many of the Canadians I had first met in Halifax last October again, including the President of the Organisation.

I then went to Halifax for five weeks in May this year to start this business venture. It was obvious after just two days for reasons that I won’t go into (for fear of being sued!) this venture was not going to work. I then contacted my old friends from the conference and they invited me to a few dinners and networking events. By ‘accident’ at one of these dinners, I happened to be sat next to two company executives who were both looking at the UK market for their business. I was able to help them (and since then I have invested in one of them).

Because of this evening, I was also introduced to some local government officials who were able to put me in touch with other companies that I could help and as a result of this, I was able to get a lot of paid work to help local companies – and am now going back to Canada at least one week in four.

In the interim, I have been able to use this experience of Canadian and UK angels to launch a new venture with the head of the Canadian Angels called www.newmarketspartners.com

This venture will bring 25 of the most promising Angel funded Canadian businesses into the UK on September the 30th. These companies are looking for UK based angels with market expertise and contacts in their chosen fields to help them expand into the UK.

There is another trip taking place on November the 25th in Toronto where UK companies looking to expand into North America will be invited to present to North American based Angels with strong market expertise.

The partners in this venture believe that angels add most value when their money is combined with expertise and market know-how.

If you are an angel – please email me and I will be able to send you an invite to the event. If you are a company looking to expand into North America, please get in touch via the website.

Back to the point of the blog! When I talk to entrepreneurs, what strikes me is how fluid their plans were and what an important role accident played in shaping the way their business looks today.

The lesson here is to go with the flow – but always be looking for new ways in which you can help others.

I do hope you found this blog useful – who knows what this may lead to for me or for you!

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There are two main reasons why I never pursued a career in finance (or the City as we in England describe it). One; the city would not have had me. Two; a career in finance appeared to be dull as heaven. (I have been told that heaven is only for people – so the idea of spending eternity as a vegetarian – sounds a bit dull)

Business to me has not been about making money; money is simply the measure of your success in a business venture. It is rather like saying to an athlete – why work so hard for a gold medal – I can buy you one off the shelf. It is about trying to persuade consumers to purchase your product because you have convinced them that your product/ service will be good for them.

People in the city tend to be obsessed about making money for the sake of making money. Don’t get me wrong; they are vital to the interests of the UK economy. The city generates some 25% of the tax revenues for the UK. This idea of introducing salary caps is too be resisted even if people and companies can not be persuaded to reign in their excesses. And the conservative party should be thoroughly ashamed for not defending the rights of people over the age of 18 and companies to enter into private arrangements over what they should be paid for a service that is vital to the national interest.

But the main thing I wanted to say was that people in the City tend to take themselves way too seriously. It must be all that training around money – and yet when they do relax and party – they tend to do so in the most obnoxious and loud way possible. It must be the Medical student syndrome. Those of us who went to University with medics will know what I mean. Because they had to study a fair bit, they had fewer opportunities to party – and they seemed to make up for it when they did party. Scary to think, that I now rely on those people to help me when I am at my most vulnerable.

As an entrepreneur your greatest asset will be your personality. Make sure therefore it is a good asset. One of the things that will help you is the ability to be able to laugh at yourself and not take yourself too seriously. I cannot stress that enough. Friends who have known me for a long time (or at least before I began my career as a business angel) are more important to me now than they ever have been in the past. They know the real me – not the person who writes business angel blog (although I try to be as honest as possible). And as soon as I do my pompous routine – they put me back in my place.

I always remember one day borrowing a car from the taxi business I had invested in. I went to pick up my then six year old son in the taxi. He was thrilled that his Dad was a taxi driver. He loved telling his friends at school about that. He is now nine and finds the idea of me being an international investor and entrepreneur really dull!

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