2011 Part one
For many people 2010 was a very tough year. Whilst the economy grew in the UK, it is still considerably smaller than it was a number of years ago. I personally think 2011 will be a very tough year for the UK economy.
Many people think that the Government austerity program has taken place; it hasn’t. 2011 is the year when the cutbacks will start to take place. The idea that the private sector will soak up workers made redundant from the public sector looks very naive especially in certain areas of the UK where a large private sector doesn’t really exist (the North East, the Isle of Wight). This will represent a big drop in demand.
Apart from the job losses, the cancellation of contracts has had and will continue to have a significant effect on the private sector. Banks are also not lending. In meetings with them, I am constantly told that the banks are open for business and they are looking for good companies to support; but they are not. This restriction will continue to hamper the ability for companies to grow and manage cashflows through expansion.
Inflation is already well above target and it looks likely to race ahead as energy prices hit two year highs (not helped by the freaky weather being experienced at the moment across Europe and the US). This pressure on inflation means it is highly likely that interest rates will have to rise. With base rates at just 0.5%, even a 0.25% increase will represent a significant proportional increase after borrowers have become used to ultra low rates. This again will represent a dampening of demand.
And of course tax rates are set to increase. Both on consumption (VAT will be going from 17.5% to 20% – which ironically will also put pressure on inflation and hence interest rates) and income taxes will be rising as well. The VAT rise takes effect this week, whilst the income tax rises will not take place until April.
The hope for the UK economy lies through exports. That though will rely on two things. Firstly the weakness of sterling will help (and sterling should remain weak) and secondly the strength of our export markets. The US remains sluggish but the German economy is showing signs of rude health.
So, my advice to entrepreneurs is to really think of how their solution can save businesses money (and ideally within a 12 month accounting period). I would also suggest that if you need to raise money, it will be through equity financing rather than debt financing. And you need to be very realistic about your valuations. I still think UK start ups are over priced compared to what I see in Canada. Finally, if you can export your service/solution/ product, you may be in with a very good chance of success.


